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A Bayesian Statistical Inference Approach to Automotive Reliability Estimation

Summary: In the testing of new vehicles to establish an estimate of a system failure rate or of system reliability the classical statistical approach does not take into account experience with previous systems or the intent of the designer. We have applied the Bayesian principle of statistical inference in an attempt to improve this situation. This paper presents an explanation of a method used for the selection of the "prior" probability density function, a method of solving for the parameters of the "prior" density function, a development of the "posterior" density function, and an example of the application of the Bayesian estimation approach as compared to the classical approach in setting confidence limits on a new vehicle system failure rate and reliability.

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  • Topics: Reliability
  • Keywords: Reliability,Bayesian methods
  • Author: Grohowski, G.; Hausman, W.; Lamberson, L.R.
  • Journal: Journal of Quality Technology