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Robustness of Forecast-Based Monitoring Schemes

Summary: Forecast-based monitoring schemes for monitoring autocorrelated data are two stages processes. The first step is to determine an appropriate time-series model for the process data. The process is then monitored using control charts applied to the one-step-ahead forecast residuals obtained from the model in the first step. Past evaluations of forecast-based monitoring schemes have assumed the process model and its associated parameters are known without error. This paper investigates the impact of estimation error of model parameters on the performance of control charts applied to forecast residuals. It is shown that these schemes are sensitive to estimation error. The direction ofthe estimation error is also shown to be important.

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  • Topics: Statistical Process Control (SPC)
  • Keywords: Statistical process control (SPC),Control charts,Autocorrelation,Time series
  • Author: Adams, Benjamin M.; Tseng, Iou-Tsyr
  • Journal: Journal of Quality Technology