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Using Statistical and Computer Models to Quantify Volcanic Hazards

Summary: [This abstract is based on the authors' abstract.] Risk assessment of rare volcanic events is undertaken through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model provides the extrapolation needed to reveal unseen aspects of the hazard event, but direct simulations are prohibitively expensive. The solution calls for a combination of adaptive design of computer model emulations and rare event simulation. The resulting techniques are illustrated on a test-bed example involving volcanic flow.

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  • Topics: Problem Solving, Risk Management
  • Keywords: Computer models, Computer plotting, Bayesian methods, Problem solving, Disaster planning, Simulations
  • Author: Bayarri, M. J.; Berger, James O.; Calder, Eliza S.; Dalbey, Keith; Lunagomez, Simon; Patra, Abani K.; Pitman, E. Bruce; Spiller, Elaine T.; Wolpert, Robert L.
  • Journal: Technometrics