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Field-Failure and Warranty Prediction Based on Auxiliary Use-Rate Information

Summary: [This abstract is based on the authors' abstract.] Assessment of risk due to product failure is important to manufacturers for both financial and safety reasons, but use-rate information is not available for most products. Today, new technology allowing sensors and smart chips to be installed in many products will provide information on how the product was used. This study uses a cycles-to-failure model to predict warranty returns for a product with multiple failure modes. While the information for these units was available from the network, prediction methods for units not connected to the network are also presented. A comparison of cycles-to-failure and time-to-failure models demonstrates that use-rate models provide better predictions.

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  • Topics: Reliability
  • Keywords: Calibration, Failure analysis, Failure mode analysis (FMA), Mean time between failures (MTBF), Prediction intervals, Field reliability, Product warranty, Product safety, Risk management
  • Author: Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.
  • Journal: Technometrics