Supplementary Material for A Random Onset Model for Degradation of High-Reliability Systems

Summary: Weapons stockpiles are expected to have high reliability over time, but prudence demands regular testing to detect detrimental aging effects and maintain confidence that reliability is high. A model is presented, called RADAR, for stockpiles with high initial reliability that may begin declining at any time. RADAR provides a framework for answering questions about how confidence in continued high reliability can change as a result of reduced sampling, discovery of failed units, and information about when a unit failed.